Yesterday, DfE published new data on pupil absence in the first two terms of the 2023/24 school year. At a quick glance it appears like there was a drop in overall absence and persistent absence amongst pupils, compared with 2022/23.
However, a closer interrogation of the data reveals some potentially worrying trends and would suggest pupil absence is yet to recover from its pandemic related rise.
1. Absence was higher in the 2023/24 spring term than in the previous spring
In May, DfE published data for the 2023/24 autumn term, showing positive signs of a year-on-year fall in absence rates. New data from the subsequent spring term, however, shows the opposite, a year-on-year increase in absence rates.
Overall absence increased from 7.0% in the 2022/23 spring term to 7.3% in the 2023/24 spring term. Persistently absent rates also increased almost one percentage point from 20.6% to 21.5%. These increases occurred across school type and phase. While the increase in pupil absence is concerning, these levels are well below the post-pandemic peak, when overall absence reached a high of 7.9% and persistent absence a high of 27.2% in the 2021/22 spring term.
2. Absence was higher in the spring than in the autumn term.
In the 2023/24 school year absence rates also increased between the autumn and spring term. In terms of overall absence there has been an increase from 6.7% to 7.3%. Similarly, increases in the percentage of persistently absent pupils were recorded from the autumn to spring term (19.4% to 21.5%). This differs from last year, where absence was lower in the spring compared with autumn term. This could be indicative of a trend of rising absence.
3. Severely absent pupil rates are consistently rising
Over time, a clear pattern is emerging of increasing numbers of pupils missing more than half of school sessions. These severe absence rates have risen particularly in special and secondary schools. Most recently, in the 2023/24 spring term a total of 2.2% of pupils were severely absent, up from 0.8% in the 2018/19 spring term (the last complete spring term prior to the pandemic). Severe absence rates have now reached 6.8% in special schools and 3.6% in secondary schools.
4. Decreases in overall absence are concentrated in young children
The only year groups that saw decreases in overall absence from spring of last year to this year are Year 2 and below. All other year groups experienced increased rates of absence in the 2023/24 spring term compared to the same term last year. Changes appear to be driven in large part by changes in illness-related absences. There was a corresponding decrease in reported illness-related absences for Year 1 and Year 2 as well as an increase in reported illness-related absences for all other year groups.
Whilst it remains concerning that older pupils continue to be absent at increasingly high rates, it appears that attendance patterns are improving for younger pupils.
Our insights again highlight the urgent and ongoing need to address pupil absenteeism in schools. Addressing absenteeism is crucial due to the system-wide costs of not acting, including on academic attainment and future life outcomes such as employment.
As the current government pledges to invest £15 million in attendance mentoring programs, it is crucial that such initiatives undergo critical evaluation to ensure they effectively reduce absenteeism.
