By the end of the decade there are expected to be 400,000 fewer pupils at schools in England than there are today, and the number of pupils in primary schools has already fallen by 150,000 since 2019. This is largely being driven by a birth rate that has been in decline since 2012 following a post millennium baby boom.
Falling pupil rolls are an issue for schools as funding is largely based on a per-pupil formula. When pupil numbers fall, funding typically falls too, which can be at a faster rate than costs. Reductions in school budgets make it more difficult for schools to maintain staffing levels, cover fixed costs, and deliver a broad curriculum. As a result, schools with declining rolls face mounting financial pressure, which can ultimately threaten their viability.
The issue of falling rolls has been particularly acute in London where the decline started a year earlier than in the country as a whole. While schools can typically absorb small fluctuations in pupil numbers and the associated changes to funding, it can be difficult to manage larger fluctuations — in areas such as Lambeth and Hackney, councils are planning to close the doors of several schools. As well as the declining birth rate, the situation in London has been attributed to the higher cost of living that is forcing many young families out of London.
In this analysis, we explore the changing pupil numbers in London. We examine the extent to which falling pupil rolls in primary schools can be attributed to pupil movements out of London through a nuanced analysis exploring trends in pupil numbers and movements over time, where London pupils are moving to, and the ethnic characteristics of London leavers.
Data and methodology
Using publicly available data on school characteristics and pupil number forecasts, we examine national and regional trends in pupil enrolments within the past five years and expected demand in the next five years. Building on this groundwork, we explore regional trends in pupil movements using data from the National Pupil Database (NPD), focusing specifically on movements in and out of London.
For this analysis, we use the annual spring census to construct two cohorts of pupils:
- A cohort of pupils in reception at a state-funded mainstream school in 2012/13 and expected to reach Year 6 by 2018/19
- A cohort of pupils in reception at a state-funded mainstream school in 2017/18 and expected to reach Year 6 by 2023/24
We link the respective reception year cohorts to data from the academic year in which we would typically expect pupils to reach Year 6 and complete primary school. Any change in a pupil’s home local authority (LA) between reception and Year 6 is then considered a move. Any LA moves associated with a school move into a special school are excluded. Pupils who were not recorded in the spring census in Year 6 are considered to have either permanently left the state education system (for home-schooling, independent education, emigration, etc) or to be missing from education (see Children Missing from Education report).
Trends in pupil numbers
Nationally, primary school pupil numbers peaked in 2018/19 at around 4.5 million, while in London they had already reached their highest point one year earlier in 2017/18 at just over 700,000. Since peaking, the national primary school pupil population has fallen by nearly 2 per cent. Over the next 5 years, it is forecast to fall a further 4.1 per cent by 2028/29. This decline aligns with birth rate data, which indicates that national birth rates peaked in 2010[1] resulting in larger cohorts of pupils entering primary school between 2014 and 2018.
Figure 1: Trends in primary pupil numbers in London and nationally from 2015/16 to 2028/29
Figure 2 shows that over the past five years, nine out of the ten LAs that recorded the largest declines in primary school pupil numbers were in London, with Westminster seeing the largest decrease (15.9 per cent) in pupil numbers. The next eight areas with the largest falls in primary pupil numbers (8 to 14 per cent) were all LAs within London – Lambeth, Southwark, Hackney, Camden, Hammersmith and Fulham, Islington, Merton, and Wandsworth in that order. Other than Merton, these LAs are all located within Inner London demonstrating that decreases in London primary pupil numbers are primarily driven by falls in Inner London.
Declines in pupil numbers are also associated with school closures. Southwark, Hackney, and Islington have each lost between four to six primary schools within the past five years followed by Camden, Westminster, Wandsworth, and Merton reporting smaller closures of between one and three primary schools. However, not all LAs with large decreases in pupil numbers report corresponding changes in school numbers. Specifically, Lambeth, Hammersmith and Fulham, and Redcar and Cleveland all report no change in primary school numbers, despite recording some of the largest drops in pupil numbers. This demonstrates that such declines do not automatically lead to school closures. While Lambeth has yet to close any primary schools, as reported above, at least two primary schools are planned to close in the coming school year. Schools’ capacity to handle drops in pupil enrolments can therefore vary across local authorities.
Figure 2: Largest declines in percentage of primary pupils table over the last five full academic years by local authority
| Local authority (LA) | Region | Percentage change in pupil numbers in primary schools from 2020/21 to 2024/25 | Number of primary schools in 2020/21 | Number of primary schools in 2024/25 |
| Westminster | Inner London | -15.9% | 39 | 36 (-3) |
| Lambeth | Inner London | -13.8% | 60 | 60 (0) |
| Southwark | Inner London | -12.4% | 74 | 68 (-6) |
| Hackney | Inner London | -11.1% | 58 | 54 (-4) |
| Camden | Inner London | -10.2% | 41 | 38 (-3) |
| Hammersmith and Fulham | Inner London | -10.1% | 36 | 36 (0) |
| Islington | Inner London | -10.0% | 46 | 42 (-4) |
| Merton | Outer London | -10.0% | 44 | 43 (-1) |
| Wandsworth | Inner London | -9.5% | 62 | 60 (-2) |
| Redcar and Cleveland | North East | -8.6% | 44 | 44 (0) |
Trends in pupil movements
An increasing number and proportion of pupils are leaving London. Around 17 per cent (~17,500) of primary pupils in reception in 2012/13 left London by Year 6. Comparatively, for pupils in reception in 2017/18, this figure increased to 20 per cent (~20,000). Upward trends in pupils leaving London suggest that falling primary pupil enrolments cannot be explained by declining birth rates alone. Moreover, these figures may underestimate the true impact of moves out of London on school rolls, as some families may leave London prior to their children entering reception year.
Figure 3: Change in proportion of pupils leaving the region during primary school from 2012/13 to 2017/18 reception cohorts
Notably, large changes in pupil movements between cohorts are not seen in other regions across England. The East Midlands, for example, only experienced a small 0.2 percentage point increase in the number of primary pupils moving out of the region while the South East remained constant, with 11.8 per cent of pupils moving out of the region in both cohorts. All other regions experienced little or no change in pupil movements.
Where are London primary pupils moving to?
London primary pupils are most likely to either move within London or leave the state education system altogether. High proportions of pupils moving within London are not necessarily surprising as London is a large metropolitan area. Families are therefore more likely to move in response to the demands of the housing market and are more likely to cross local authority boundaries given their small geographic area. Large numbers of pupils leaving the state education system, or what we term ‘missing or permanent leavers’, could reflect the higher proportions of international families in London who are more likely to leave England. They may also indicate that, for London families, independent schools are more of an option than elsewhere.
Figure 4: Proportion of pupils moving from London local authorities to other areas by reception year cohort
Between the 2012/13 and 2017/18 cohorts, the proportion of pupils no longer recorded in the state education system increased from 8 per cent to 10.1 per cent. Increases in pupils leaving the state system mean that those in reception in 2017/18 were more likely to do so than move within London. This marks a departure from earlier trends (i.e. pupils in reception in 2012/13) for whom moving within London was more likely than leaving the state system. Such changes between cohorts may be the result of post-Brexit migration in and out of the UK or of the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on education.[1] Future research may wish to consider more closely the factors driving these changes in pupil movements.
Figure 5: Changes in pupil movement from London between reception cohorts by local authority
As London’s neighbouring regions, the South East and East of England attract significantly larger proportions of primary pupils from London than other regions. Within these regions, the local authorities of Kent, Essex, Hertfordshire, Surrey, and Buckinghamshire record the largest influxes of pupils from London across both cohorts. Medway and Surrey experienced the largest increases in London primary pupils between the 2012/13 to 2017/18 cohorts while Birmingham saw the largest decrease. That said, the majority of local authorities incurred only small changes in the percentage of pupils moving in from London between cohorts.
What types of pupils are leaving London?
To better understand the demographics of pupils leaving London, we examine pupil movements by ethnic group, as recorded in the spring census the year pupils enter reception. This approach enables us to identify patterns across the two cohorts and, consequently, pinpoint any persistent trends.
As illustrated in Figure 6, most ethnic groups recorded a slight increase in the absolute proportions of pupils leaving for other parts of England between the 2012/13 and 2017/18 cohorts. The relative ranking of these groups, however, remained broadly constant. Pupils identified as Traveller of Irish Heritage continued to have the highest rates of movement out of London, though the proportions might be skewed by the relatively small number of pupils within this group. Those from White British backgrounds had the second highest propensity to leave, indicating that high rates of mobility are not limited to transient groups.
Additionally, pupils from Indian and White and Black African backgrounds showed some of the largest increases in terms of absolute percentages of pupils leaving London, rising by just over 2 percentage points between the two cohorts. By contrast, pupils from Gypsy / Roma and Chinese backgrounds recorded the steepest declines. Again, proportions might be skewed by the relatively small numbers within these groups and should therefore be interpreted with caution, as small sample sizes can lead to large percentage swings that may not reflect meaningful or stable trends.
Figure 6: Proportion of pupils leaving London for other parts of England by ethnic group and reception year cohort
Certain London pupils were also more likely to leave the state system entirely. While we are unable to see exactly where these pupils are going it is nonetheless important to understand which pupils tend to leave.
The ethnic group most likely to no longer be in a state-funded school by the end of Year 6 from the 2017/18 reception cohort is White Irish with 22.5 per cent of pupils no longer appearing in the spring census by the end of Year 6, a 7 percentage point increase from the 2012/13 reception cohort. Within the same 2017/18 cohort, only 6 per cent of White Irish pupils moved within London and even fewer relocated to the South East and East of England, highlighting that pupil movements for White Irish pupils usually represent exits out of the English state education system, instead of geographic relocations within England.
Figure 7: Proportion of London pupils leaving the school system entirely by ethnicity and reception year cohort
We observe a similar trend among pupils of Any Other White Background. Within this ethnic group, we see a 5 percentage point increase (from 14.2 per cent for the 2012/13 cohort to 19.2 per cent for the 2017/18 cohort) in terms of the number of pupils leaving the state-funded system. Comparatively, 10 per cent of pupils also moved within London whilst only 3 to 4 per cent of pupils moved to London’s neighbouring regions and most common destination for pupils moving out of the city – East of England and South East.
Though we do not have enough information to establish a definitive causal relationship, the movement patterns in two of the observed ethnic groups — Any Other White background and White Irish — might be embedded within wider socio-political dynamics, potentially reflecting, for example, the increase in departures of EU nationals in the aftermath of Brexit.
Movement into London
To better contextualise the above analysis, we also examine domestic patterns in pupil movements into London compared to other regions. Notably, London, the second largest region in terms of overall pupil numbers, reports the lowest proportion of pupils moving into London from other regions (less than 2 per cent) across both cohorts. Specifically, in the 2017/18 cohort only 1,800 pupils moved into London while 9,900 pupils left London for other regions — meaning that nearly 5.5 times more pupils left London than moved in from other parts of England. Comparatively, the neighbouring East of England region experiences the highest rate of movement into the region, with pupil numbers increasing by just over 6 per cent across both cohorts.
Between cohorts most regions, including London, experience little change in pupil movement patterns. Nevertheless, the South West region records the biggest change with a decrease of 1.2 percentage points between cohorts. Conclusions regarding larger patterns in immigration are limited as the figure below excludes immigration from outside England (i.e. from Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland) and from outside of the UK. Future research may aim to provide more nuanced analysis of immigration patterns by capturing international pupil movements into England.
Figure 8: Pupils moving into region as proportion of reception year cohort
Certain pupils are less likely to move to London than others. Particularly, White British pupils and pupils from Any other White background are the least likely to move to London from other parts of England. Instead, pupils from Any other ethnic group tend to move to London, albeit these moves only represent a small proportion (0.3 – 1.0 per cent) of pupil movements.
Between cohorts, the greatest changes in pupils moving to London between reception cohorts is increases in movements of Chinese pupils, Bangladeshi pupils, and pupils from Any other Ethnic Group to London. Generalisations in trends over time and across cohorts should be made with caution as these ethnic subgroups represent small numbers of pupils. Therefore, small changes in pupil numbers moving to London can cause larger proportional changes in pupil movements.
Figure 9: Percentage of pupils moving to London by ethnic group and reception year cohort
In the next five years
For primary schools, the decrease in pupil numbers over the next five years is projected to be more pronounced in London compared to the rest of the country, with predicted declines across almost all London local authorities. Islington, Lambeth, and Southwark are expected to experience the largest declines, ranging from 14 to 20 per cent. Havering and Waltham Forest are the only Outer London LAs forecast to experience modest increases in pupil numbers of 4 and 0.5 per cent, respectively.
In line with pupil movements to neighbouring regions, four of the ten LAs predicted to have the biggest increases in pupil numbers are located in the East of England region, with Central Bedfordshire predicted to have the largest increase of 12.7 per cent, followed by Luton, Cambridgeshire, and Peterborough.
Figure 10: Percentage change in the number of primary school pupils by London local authority, 2018/19 – 2023/24 (actual) and between 2023/24 – 2028/29 (forecast)
By 2028/29, the numbers of primary school pupils in Islington and Lambeth are projected to have fallen by around 30 per cent compared to a decade earlier. Most of the other London local authorities are expected to follow suit, with Westminster, Southwark, Hackney, Camden, Merton, Richmond, Wandsworth, and Hammersmith and Fulham all forecast to decline by over 20 per cent. Outside of London, the only LA predicted to incur a loss in pupil numbers of more than 20 per cent since 2018 is Brighton and Hove.
Figure 11: Forecast percentage change in primary school pupil numbers by London borough between 2018/19 and 2028/29
Conclusion
The sustained decline in London’s primary school enrolments reflects more than just falling birth rates; it reveals a broader shift in where and how young families are choosing to live. While declining birth rates play a key role, our analysis also highlights the growing trend of families moving out of the capital. Neighbouring regions in the South East and East of England are seeing the greatest influxes, though much of the change stems from pupils leaving the state-funded system. This underscores the need to examine more closely the role of emigration, independent schooling, home education, and the prevalence of ‘unexplained exits’ and how these patterns interact with other socio-economic challenges pupils may face. Within the South East and East of England, the local authorities of Kent, Surrey, Essex, and Hertfordshire record the largest inflows from London — a trend that has persisted across the 2012/13 and 2017/18 reception cohorts. As primary pupil numbers are projected to continue to fall, policymakers and admissions authorities must respond with data-informed strategies to adapt school provision and school funding to support a changing educational landscape.
