Latest government data shows overall absence rates in schools are falling, but there is a widening gap between vulnerable children and their peers.
Last year, we reported on the very high absence statistics that the Department for Education published for the autumn term of 2022/23. We were concerned that absences had spiked to historic highs during the pandemic. Furthermore, absence rates had increased more over the pandemic for vulnerable pupils, such as those on FSM and those with SEND. In this blog we reanalyse the situation one year on using DfE’s latest absence statistics for the autumn term 2023/24.
Figure 1: Overall absences over time
Between autumn 2022/23 and 2023/24, overall absence rates fell. Overall absence at primary schools fell from 6.3% to 5.3% and at secondary schools from 8.8% to 8.1%. This fall appears to be largely driven by an unwinding of some of the global effects of Covid-19 – across both phases there was an almost 1 percentage point fall in the rate of authorised absence due to illness.
However, this headline decrease hides further increases in unauthorised absences. Unauthorised absence increased 5.5% at secondary and 1.5% at primary in the year to autumn 2023/24. Leaving unauthorised absence rates almost 40% higher at primary and over 80% higher at secondary than they were pre-pandemic (autumn 2019/20).
Absence is still far higher among vulnerable pupils, and the difference continues to increase
As in our previous blogs, we translate absence rates to the average number of days absent in the autumn term, to get a sense of how absence varied between different pupil groups during and after the pandemic.[1] Figure 2 illustrates the change in the number of absence days over the pandemic (between autumn 2019 and autumn 2022) and the subsequent year (between autumn 2022 and autumn 2023).
Two groups stood out as being worst affected by the pandemic (between 2019 and 2022): disadvantaged pupils[2] and children with special educational needs. These pupils had, on average, around an additional 2 days off in autumn 2022 compared to 2019. In the subsequent year to autumn 2023, they then had the smallest reductions in absence of all pupil groups. Counter to the trend of other groups of pupils seeing at least some reduction in absence days in the year to autumn 2023, absences amongst pupils with an EHC plan actually increased over that time period.
Figure 2: Changes in the average days of absence between autumn 2019, 2022 and 2023, by pupil characteristics
Note: Red bars illustrate increases in the number of absence days and green bars illustrate decreases in the number of absence days.
These disparities in absence rates have led to a ‘double widening’ of the ‘absence gap’, for vulnerable pupils. We calculate the ‘absence gap’, shown in figure 3, as the difference in average days of absence between pupil groups. For instance, disadvantaged pupils had on average an extra 2.1 days of absence in autumn 2019, rising to 3.0 days in autumn 2022 and reaching 3.2 days in autumn 2023. Having more than three additional days of absence per term compared to their peers is likely driving some of the widening attainment gaps we observe for these particular groups. (Tuckett et. al., 2024) and something we plan to explore through further research later this year.
Figure 3: Disadvantage and SEN ‘absence gaps’
Unauthorised absence is an issue for all pupils
We next split the total gap between 2019 and 2023 into one of three reasons (in shades of grey) to help distinguish between illness as a driver of higher absence, as opposed to other authorised reasons or unauthorised absences. Across different pupil characteristics we observe that the relative contribution of different reasons to higher absence rates is consistent, and, in all cases, increased unauthorised absences is a key driver. These additional unauthorised absences are predominately due to increases in ‘other’ unauthorised absences (the rate of which has almost doubled since pre-pandemic to 1.5%), rather than unauthorised holidays (which has only increased 0.1 percentage points over the same period).
Figure 4: Average days of absence in autumn 2019 and 2023, by type of absence and pupil characteristics
While absence is generally declining among pupils with SEND, it continues to rise for those with social emotional and mental health needs
The high and increasing rates of absenteeism amongst pupils with SEN raises complex questions about the nature and quality of the support they receive in and out of school. A discussion of potential solutions is beyond the scope of this blog, but we do further consider absence patterns by primary SEN type.
Figure 5: Changes in the average days of absence between autumn 2019, 2022 and 2023, by primary SEN type
Note: Red bars illustrate increases in the number of absence days and green bars illustrate decreases in the number of absence days.
Pupils with profound and multiple learning difficulties entered the pandemic with the highest levels of overall absence (an average of 11.1 days in autumn 2019/20) and continue to experience the highest levels of absenteeism (an average of 12.7 days in autumn 2023/24).
However, the largest increases in absenteeism over the pandemic were amongst pupils with autism, and social emotional and mental health needs. These pupils had over an additional 2 days of absence in autumn 2022/23 compared to pre-pandemic. Worryingly, pupils with social emotional and mental health needs have continued to see higher absences in the year post-pandemic, increasing to an average of 9.6 absence days in the autumn term of 2023/24. This is despite pupils with other needs seeing lower rates of absence in autumn 2023 compared to autumn 2022.
To further add to this concern, the number of pupils with social emotional and mental health needs has increased 37% between autumn 2019 and autumn 2023.
Conclusion
Whilst there was a fall in the overall level of absence to autumn 2023/24, this was driven by falls in illness-related absence as the pandemic has subsided, and unauthorised absences have in fact increased. The overall rate of absence remains high compared to pre-pandemic standards for all pupils.
Recently published official data has provided fresh insights into how absence patterns have developed for different groups of pupils during and post the pandemic. Concerningly, disadvantaged pupils and children with special educational needs were particularly hard hit by the pandemic, with absence increasing more than amongst other pupils. This has now been compounded in the year after the pandemic, with these pupil groups seeing a smaller decline in absence rates than others. Some SEN pupils, in particular those with mental health needs, have even seen further increases in absence.
This means the ‘absence gap’ between vulnerable and other pupils has continued to grow, and would appear to be widening underlying inequalities for these vulnerable groups, whose education has suffered the most in the wake of the pandemic.
[1] We use autumn 2019 as the latest data point prior to the start of the pandemic, and 2022 as the first data point subsequent to the end of the pandemic.
[2] Those eligible for free school meals at some point in the last 6 years.
