Recent research reveals how class, gender, and geography combine to shape young people’s life chances across the UK – with Wales and Northern Ireland falling furthest behind.
It is well understood that your parents’ jobs and your gender both play a critical role in your chances of progressing to higher education and of ending up in secure, well-paid jobs. Even among young people with identical GCSE grades, those whose parents work in professional occupations are more likely to progress to higher education, and to have higher earnings than those from working-class backgrounds. And though women are now more likely than men to progress to higher education, once in employment they are likely to work fewer hours and be paid less for each hour worked (Andrew et al. 2021). Despite ongoing government interventions, these inequalities persist.
However, what has been less clear until recently is the variation in the influence of these factors across the four nations of the UK. A joint research venture over the last two years from EPI and Oxford University Centre on Skills, Knowledge and Organisational Performance (SKOPE), funded by the Nuffield Foundation, has exposed just how much the impact of your background varies across the UK.
Starting with access to higher education, gender gaps in progression to higher education appear smallest in Scotland, where boys are just 10 percentage points less likely to progress. The largest gender gaps are in Northern Ireland, where boys are 17 percentage points less likely to progress. This stark difference may well be exacerbated by the selective grammar school system in Northern Ireland, with boys’ lower average attainment at the end of each education phase meaning they have fewer opportunities to catch up than in nations with more comprehensive systems. By the age of 17 two-thirds of girls in Northern Ireland are studying level 3 qualifications (e.g. A levels or BTECs) compared to just half of boys.
However, whilst the size of the gender gap is notable in Northern Ireland, progression rates overall are particularly low in Wales, with only 24 per cent of Welsh boys progressing to higher education. Correspondingly, Welsh boys are half as likely to progress to higher education as Northern Irish girls, of who almost half progress. The low progress figures for Wales are perhaps unsurprising as it has some of the lowest attainment levels across the UK at both 16 and 18.
The impact of disadvantage also varies wildly across the four nations and exacerbates some of the gender inequalities previously noted. England has the highest proportion of undergraduates who come from the most deprived areas, at around 21 per cent. By contrast, the figure is just 13 per cent for Northern Ireland, and 15 and 16 per cent in Scotland and Wales respectively. Most concerning is the intersection between gender and disadvantage – we find women from the least deprived areas of Northern Ireland are four times more likely to progress to higher education than men in the most deprived areas of Wales.
The differential impacts of disadvantage persist after young people leave education. Not only are employment levels for young people higher in England, but they appear to be less related to young people’s parental background, with a difference of only 5 percentage points between those from professional backgrounds, and those from working-class backgrounds. Conversely, in Wales the gap is over 10 percentage points, and 7 and 6 percentage points in Scotland and Northern Ireland respectively. Similarly, the difference between the NEET (Not in Education, Employment or Training) rates of those from professional and working-class backgrounds in England is around half of the differences in the other three UK nations.
The causes of these inequalities are complex. Some stem from broader economic or social trends, such as differences in labour markets across the nations or shifting gender norms, while others are rooted in structural weaknesses within the UK’s education and training systems. Our research highlights a lack of coherence in post-16 pathways, with policy instability and constant reform making it difficult for schools and colleges to provide consistent support. Moreover, whilst better data capture on the post-16 system in England has enabled better evidence on educational inequalities, data remains much patchier in the other nations. Even basic data on the proportion of all young people’s educational attainment and progress at different ages are not consistently available. Nor are data on the attainment gaps for disadvantaged students. Given that inequalities appear far more pronounced in the other nations, this lack of data is alarming.
Devolved governments have both the responsibility and opportunity to close these evidence gaps. Doing so is a vital first step toward tackling inequality and boosting social mobility and productivity. To support this, forthcoming research from EPI will examine how qualification pathways for disadvantaged students differ across England and Wales – shedding light on how system design shapes opportunity. Any serious UK-wide strategy for improving life chances must begin with a focused, data-led effort to close the growing gaps in opportunity.
