A new report by the Education Policy Institute (EPI), funded by the Nuffield Foundation, explores how long-term changes in education and employment outcomes vary across the four UK nation.The report highlights the impact of differences in post-16 education and training systems and policies, with a specific focus on whether Scotland’s Winter Leaving Rules have influenced the education and job prospects of young people. The analysis covers the education and employment outcomes of individuals born across the UK from the late 1940s through to the late 1980s.
The report finds that:
• Scotland’s ‘Winter Leaving Rules’ require young people born between October and February to stay in school until at least Christmas of the following academic year, adding an extra 4-5 months of schooling. While this policy increases school attendance, it shows little to no benefit in terms of higher educational qualifications or employment outcomes. In fact, winter leavers are less likely to be in positive education or employment destinations than children who leave education at the end of academic years (e.g S4 and S5).
• Narrowing of national gaps – For older cohorts, there were large gaps by nation in terms of the share of individuals with Level 2 qualifications (equivalent of GCSEs and National 5s). Amongst men born in the 1940s and 1950s, Level 2 qualification rates were much lower in Wales and Northern Ireland (55-60%) compared to England and Scotland (65-70%). Over time, this gap closed, with about 90% of men born in the late 1980s achieving Level 2 qualifications across all four nations.
• Closing of gender disparities – Women started with lower attainment rates than men but their attainment increased significantly over time. By the mid-1960s cohorts, the gender gap had disappeared, and in recent cohorts, women are as likely—if not more likely—than men to have Level 2 qualifications.
• Scotland has consistently outperformed other UK nations in maintaining higher rates of Level 3 qualifications. Stretching back to at least those born in the 1940s, Scotland has long had a higher share of individuals with Level 3 qualifications (equivalent to A levels and Highers). Amongst those born in the 1980s, nearly 80 per cent of men and women in Scotland had Level 3 qualifications, which compares with about 70 per cent in England and Northern Ireland.
• Wales lags behind on Level 3 qualifications. For those born in the 1980s, about 65-70% of women in Wales hold Level 3 qualifications. This is even lower for men, with about 60-65% of men in Wales born in the 1980s holding Level 3 qualifications.
• Huge narrowing of gender inequalities in Level 3 qualifications. Amongst women born in the late 1940s and early 1950s, about 25-35% of women held Level 3 qualifications across the four nations of the UK. This is more than 20 percentage points lower than men born at the same time. For those born in the 1980s, these gender differences had vanished, with women, if anything, more likely to hold Level 3 qualifications. This illustrates some of the massive societal changes that have reduced gender inequalities in education over time across the UK.
• Women still face barriers in employment across all four nations. For cohorts born up until the 1970s, the gap in employment rates for men and women continued to narrow, but there has been little progress since then. For those born in the late 1980s, 85-90% of men were employed, compared to just 75-80% of women, highlighting the ongoing challenge of achieving employment equality.
The report recommends that:
• The Scottish government should abolish winter leaving rules, so that all students in the same cohort leave school at the same time. This could either be at the end of S4, or S5 if the Scottish Government wanted all children to stay in school longer. This would eliminate the disadvantage faced by winter leavers and simplify the system for students, parents, and educators alike. Colleges and schools currently create partnership agreements to effectively undo some of the potential disadvantage from winter leaving rules. It would be better if this wasn’t necessary.
• More active and urgent action is required in Wales. Policymakers in Wales should be taking more urgent and active steps to understand and improve post-16 educational outcomes and inequalities. Policymakers should ensure all young people in Wales have access to high-quality Level 3 qualifications. It is also important to improve GCSE attainment and reduce inequalities so that more young people in Wales are in a position to take Level 3 qualifications after age 16.
You can download and read the full report here.
This report is kindly funded by the Nuffield Foundation.
The Nuffield Foundation is an independent charitable trust with a mission to advance social well-being. It funds research that informs social policy, primarily in Education, Welfare, and Justice. The Nuffield Foundation is the founder and co-founder of the Nuffield Council on Bioethics, the Ada Lovelace Institute and the Nuffield Family Justice Observatory. The Foundation has funded this project, but the views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily the Foundation. You can read more about their work here.
