Headline results are similar to last year
The qualifications regulator Ofqual had said in advance that it expected results to be broadly similar to last year and that’s what we have seen in today’s results. This stability follows two years of falls as the grading system unwound the effects of the pandemic when the use of centre and teacher assessed grades led to large increases in 2020 and 2021.
Overall, amongst 16-year-olds in England 70.4 per cent of all awards were at grade 4 or above, this is just 0.1percentage points higher than in 2023. At the higher end of the distribution, 22.6 per cent of all awards were at grade 7 or above, this is just 0.2 percentage points higher than in 2023.
There are some small differences between the distribution of results this year and those in 2019 – the last set of results before the Covid-19 pandemic. The percentage of entries at grade 7 and above is 0.8 percentage points higher than in 2019 and the percentage of entries at grade 4 and above is 0.5 percentage points higher. However, the percentage of entries receiving any pass is slightly below where it was in 2019 – 0.3 percentage points lower.
The average grade awarded in 2024 was 4.80, broadly the same as it was last year and the average grade prior to the pandemic. Following the use of centre assessed grades in 2020 and teacher assessed grades in 2021, the average grade awarded was around half a grade higher in 2021 than it had been in 2019.
Most subjects are have a similar grade distribution to last year, apart from expected increases in top grades in Computing, French and German
Almost all subjects have similar grade distributions to last year. Grades in statistics and classical studies are actually slightly below 2019 levels. There have been noticeable increases in German and French, but this is due to an upwards adjustment in these subjects to bring standards in line with other languages. Increases have also happened in Computing following a review of standards which found grading has been overly stringent in previous years.
Girls continue to outperform boys, but the gap continues to close
In 2024, 73.7 per cent of entries from girls achieved a grade 4 or above in comparison with 67.1 per cent of entries from boys. This gap between boys and girls has narrowed slightly since 2023 and has been continually narrowing since 2019. The gap is now 2.2 percentage points lower than it was in 2019. This has been driven by the percentage of boys achieving grade 4 or above increasing whilst the percentage for girls has decreased.
Similarly, the gap between boys and girls has narrowed amongst the highest attaining, when compared with 2019. This year, 25.5 per cent of entries from girls and 19.8 per cent of entries from boys were awarded a grade 7 or above. This represents a gap of 5.7 percentage points, 0.1 percentage points down on last year and 0.7 percentage points down on the 2019 gap. This gap was higher in period 2020 to 2022. The percentage of boys and girls achieving grade 7 or above have both increased since 2019.
Gaps vary by subject, with little changes from last year
Girls continue to outperform boys in the vast majority of subjects. In 2024, the only subjects where boys consistently outperformed girls at both grade 4 and grade 7 are maths, physics, economics and statistics. As we observe across all entries, gender gaps have seen small changes since 2023. Gaps have narrowed in engineering, although this reverses widening gaps between 2019 and 2023.
Learning loss in maths recovering but English standards fall below pre-pandemic levels
Today’s GSCE results look very similar to those in 2023 and in the year prior to the pandemic, 2019. This is, in part, by design. A better way to track performance over time is to look at the results from the National Reference Test (NRT) in English and mathematics taken by a representative sample of year 11 pupils. This is also a good way to measure the impacts of the pandemic with the last pre-pandemic NRTs taking place in February/March 2020 just before schools closed due to the pandemic.
Results released today by Ofqual, suggests that outcomes in English, whilst holding up during the disruption of the pandemic, have fallen below pre pandemic levels in 2024. In mathematics performance at both grade 4 and above, and grade 7 and above, remains below pre-pandemic levels but has shown signs of recovery this year. This year, pupils achieved the highest per cent of grade 7 or above in mathematics since 2019. Despite changes observed on the NRT, Ofqual has decided not to adjust GCSE awards this year.
London continues to be the best performing region of England
There are long standing disparities in the attainment of pupils in different parts of the country. While regional differences are relatively small compared to, for example, the difference between the highest and lowest performing schools, it was still the case that pupils in the South East and in particular London outperformed pupils elsewhere.
Today’s results show that regional disparities continue. The percentage of entries awarded a grade 7 or above in London was 28.6%, whilst only 17.8% of entries in the north east were awarded a grade 7 or above. In the majority of regions, results today are similar to those in 2023.
However, across all regions the percent of pupils awarded a grade 4 or above fell slightly. This was driven by pupils retaking GCSE exams at older ages, as noted above there was a 0.1 percentage point increase between 2023 and 2024 amongst 16-year-olds. Further decreases in the percent of pupils awarded a grade 4 or above and grade 7 or above, compared to 2023, have been experienced in the East Midlands and the Eastern Regions.
During the pandemic the gap between London other regions widened. London has seen a 1.9 percentage point increase in the per cent of awards awarded a grade 4 and above, and a 2.8 percentage point increase in the per cent of awards awarded a grade 7 and above since 2019.
This widening of the gap between London and the rest of the country is consistent with analysis of learning loss during the pandemic (which has tended to focus on younger pupils) has also suggested greater learning losses for pupils in the north and in parts of the midlands.
Ofqual have also released breakdowns of grades by ceremonial county. The highest results are again clustered in London and the south east. Over 30 per cent of entries were awarded a grade 7 or above in Surrey, Berkshire and Buckinghamshire, the largest fraction of any counties. In contrast, East Riding of Yorkshire, Cumbria, Staffordshire, and Isle of Wight had the lowest rates, with less than 17 per cent of entries awarded grade 7 or above.
In terms of how results this year compared with results in 2023, Suffolk and Bristol saw the largest declines, with the percentage of students attaining grade 7 or above falling by 1.2 percentage points from last year. The largest increase in the percentage of pupils awarded a grade 7 or above was seen in Dorset, Northumberland, and the Isle of Wight, each with a 1.5 percentage point increases on 2023.
For the counties with the highest percentages of students achieving top grades in 2024, the changes on last year were relatively small. Surrey and Rutland are notable exceptions, with changes of 1.1 and -0.9 percentage points, respectively, compared to last year.
Top grades have increased more in independent schools than state-funded schools
Free schools have experienced the largest increase in the percentage of pupils obtaining a grade 7 or above. There was a 2-percentage point increase between 2023 and 2024. However, this is likely to partly be a compositional effect – there will be free schools in this year’s data that were not included in previous years. To aid comparisons over time, Ofqual publish further analysis that is restricted to institutions with results in every year from 2018 to 2024. This also shows an increase for free schools, but a slightly smaller 1.5 percentage points.
The number of entries graded at 7 and above for independent and selective schools was more than double all other school types. This gap has generally increased in 2024, with larger increases in top grades at selective (1 percentage point) and independent (1.8 percentage points) schools, compared to academies (0.1 percentage points) and comprehensive schools (0.3 percentage points).
Grades in vocational qualifications appear to fall
Whilst GCSE results are very similar to last year, there have been falls across the grade distribution in vocational qualifications. This summer, 303,840 grades were awarded across 33 vocational qualifications with the Pass/Merit/Distinction grading structure across level 1 and 2. 65.5 per cent of these awards were at Level 2, compared to 74.7 per cent in 2023, a decrease of 9.2 percentage points. This fall is potentially explained by changes in made to the qualifications themselves, as well as the mix of pupils taking these qualifications. However, we will not know until later in the year whether this was the driver of observed changes.
