On 24th August 2017, pupils received their GCSE results – which included the first set of results for English and maths under the new grading system. These new qualifications, designed to be more demanding, will see pupils achieve grades on a new 9-1 scale – with the Government defining a grade 5 as a ‘strong pass’.
In this major new report, in partnership with UCL Institute of Education, we have identified what these new grades mean in terms of a world class education system and how far education in England needs to improve to match the highest performing countries in the world.
The report uses the latest international PISA data in order to identify a ‘world-class standard’ (based on the performance of the highest attaining countries) and consider the performance of pupils in England in relation to the new standard – the results are represented in both current and new GCSE grading systems. The report also looks at how different parts of the country are performing, as well as examining how far behind Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland are in relation to the new standard.
You can read the full report, English Education: World Class?, here.
England vs. the new world-class standard
Looking at average overall attainment, we find that England’s education system needs to undergo significant improvement if it is to keep pace with the world’s best education systems:
- To match the highest performing countries in the world, pupils in England must, on average, achieve a ‘strong pass’ in maths and English – this is a grade 5 under the new GCSE grading system (and the equivalent of a high C or low B grade under the old system).
- Applied to all subjects, this would require a total score of 50 points under the new ‘Attainment 8’ measure. For England to match the world’s best, we estimate that half of all pupils would need to achieve an overall score of 50 points or higher across Attainment 8 subjects.
- In 2016, less than 40 per cent of pupils in state-funded schools in England achieved this world-class standard. To equal the highest performers England would therefore need to make up a lot of ground, increasing this figure by a quarter – or an additional 60,000 pupils.
- The proportion of pupils reaching the new world-class standard is around 20 percentage points lower than the historic 5+ A*-C (including English and mathematics) measure.
Performance in Maths
England faces an immense challenge in maths if it wishes to be on a par with the highest performing countries, such as Singapore, Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, and Japan:
- To match their average performance, under the new GCSE grading system, the average grade in England will need to increase by around two thirds per student – an increase from 4.7 to 5.4.
- The number of top performing pupils (those securing an A*- B grade) would need to increase by over a third – an additional 96,000 pupils.
- Crucially, the number of low performing pupils (those failing to secure a C grade) would almost need to be cut in half – or reduce by 60,000 pupils.
Performance in Reading
Reaching the world-class standard for English would require smaller, yet still significant, improvements in pupils’ performance at GCSE level:
- England’s average English language grade will also need to increase – from around 4.7 to 4.9 points under the new grades.
- The number of top performing pupils (achieving an A*- B grade) would need to increase by a sixth – an extra 42,000 pupils – to match the highest performing countries in native language reading – Singapore, Hong Kong, Canada, Finland and the Republic of Ireland.
- Those performing at the lower end of the scale (pupils failing to secure a C grade) would also need to decease by over a quarter. This means the number also needs to fall by 42,000.
Performance in Science
- For top attaining pupils in science (those achieving 5 points – a ‘strong pass’ – or higher) – the number of pupils needs to increase by just over an eighth to catch up with the highest performing countries – an increase of 48,000 pupils.
- More critical to developing England’s performance in science to a world-class standard is improving the grades of the lowest-attaining pupils. To match the world’s best, England needs also to reduce the proportion of pupils scoring 4.5 points or below by just under a sixth – a reduction of around 36,000 pupils.
Comparing different areas in England
Nearly all local authorities fail to get at least half of their pupils to the world-class standard – with great variation within this level of performance:
- 136 out 150 local authorities fail to get half of their pupils achieving on average a ‘strong pass’ – a total of 50 points under the new system.
- Of the 14 areas where at least half of pupils reach or exceed the world-class standard, we find that most of these are academically selective – meaning that the performance in these areas is skewed by the selection of high-attaining pupils.
- Areas such as the Isle of Wight, Knowsley, Blackpool, and Nottingham are significantly behind – with the proportion achieving on average a ‘strong pass’ at just over a quarter. In London, in contrast, 45 per cent of pupils achieved the world-class standard.
- As expected, attainment is similarly low in the government’s ‘Opportunity Areas’, where on average, less than a third of pupils achieved the world-class standard in 2016.
Comparing England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland
Our findings starkly uncover the extent of Wales’ poor performance – and the huge distance between it and the world-class standard:
- Examining how well other UK nations perform, we find that Wales’ performance in maths is significantly lower than England’s – just 38 per of cent pupils are high attainers, achieving the equivalent of an A*- B GCSE grade. This compares with Scotland (44 per cent) and Northern Ireland (43 per cent).
- To keep pace with the world’s best in maths, Wales would therefore need to drastically improve the number of top performing pupils it has – by over a half. Scotland and Northern Ireland would each need to increase theirs by over a third.
- At the lower end of the attainment scale, all UK nations face a huge task in reducing the proportion of pupils struggling to secure a grade C. Once again, Wales faces the biggest challenge – to meet the world-class standard in maths it would need to cut the number of low performing pupils in half – while the required reduction in Scotland and Northern Ireland is just under a half.