Attainment methodology and changes since 2019
Throughout our analysis we use the National Pupil Database (NPD)[1] which captures pupils and students in state education in England.
For our analysis of pupils up to age 16, we include all state-funded schools except for those whose sole, or main, registration was in alternative provision, a pupil referral unit or a hospital school. Independent schools are not included.
For 16-19 education, we include all students and qualifications entered in this phase in all state-funded 16-19 provision. We exclude students on an apprenticeship in any year of their 16-19 study, as recorded in the Young Person’s Matched Administrative Database (YPMAD).
Here we set out which attainment measures we use for each phase, as well as a little detail on the changes in overall attainment since 2019. For all phases, we focus on comparisons with 2019 as the most recent year when assessments and exams were unaffected by the pandemic.
Our analysis was carried out in the Secure Research Service, part of the Office for National Statistics (ONS). It contains statistical data from ONS which is Crown Copyright. The use of the ONS statistical data in this work does not imply the endorsement of the ONS in relation to the interpretation or analysis of the statistical data. This work uses research datasets which may not exactly reproduce National Statistics aggregates.
Early years foundation stage
To measure children’s development at age 5, we use the statutory teacher-led assessments against the early years foundation stage (EYFS) profile. Specifically, we use a pupil’s total point score across the twelve (out of seventeen) early learning goals which correspond to the Department for Education’s ‘good level of development’ measure.[2] Although the EYFS was reformed in 2021 affecting both the goals themselves and how these are assessed, we have adjusted our time series to allow us to compare 2023 and 2022 attainment data to earlier years. Our time series begins in 2013, as the EYFS scoring system changed in this year, significantly affecting the score distributions in earlier years.
For each goal, children are assessed as either meeting the expected level of development at the end of reception year (score = 2) or not yet reaching this level (score = 1). The total points score aggregates scores across the twelve goals, giving a maximum possible score of 24 for pupils meeting the expected level in each.
In 2023, the average EYFSP total point score was 21.9, slightly above the 2022 score of 21.8 and slightly below the 2019 score of 22.0. Assessments in years 2020 and 2021 were cancelled due to the pandemic.
Primary school
At the end of primary school pupil attainment is measured by statutory key stage 2 assessments. Specifically, we base our attainment measure on pupils’ average scaled score in reading and maths to provide the most consistency since the start of our series in 2011. The spelling, punctuation and grammar assessment was only introduced in 2013, whilst the writing assessment has been teacher-assessed since 2012. Where pupils are missing either result for reading or maths, the average takes the value of the subject they do have a score for. Scaled scores for these domains are derived from national test results and can take values between 80 and 120. We also include teacher-assessed attainment scores for pupils who do not reach the lowest measurable score in the test, whose scores range from 59 to 79, to enable them to be included in the point distribution.
2016 was the first year when pupils were assessed against a new national curriculum, in tests that were designed to be more challenging, and with a new scoring system. Whilst these reforms make direct comparisons of attainment difficult over time, our focus is on relative differences in attainment between specific groups of pupils.
In 2023, pupils aged 11 had an average scaled score of 102.8. This is the mid-point between the (lower) 2022 scaled score of 102.5 and the (higher) score in 2019 of 103.2, the most recent pre-pandemic year when pupils sat key stage 2 assessments. As with EYFS assessments, there were no key stage 2 assessments during the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021. Prior to 2019, average attainment at the end of primary school had been improving since the introduction of the new key stage 2 tests in 2016. The decline in attainment in 2022 and fact that 2023 attainment remains below pre-pandemic levels highlights the on-going educational challenges in the aftermath of the pandemic.
Secondary school
To assess overall attainment at the end of secondary school – known as key stage 4 – we measure pupils’ average GCSE grade across English and maths. This provides a measure that, while relatively narrow, is not affected by changes in GCSE subject entry patterns over time so gives maximum stability in our time series which starts in 2011. Achieving good grades in these core subjects is often a prerequisite for progressing to further study. Pupils failing, or not entering, a relevant English or maths qualification by the end of key stage 4 receive a score of zero for that component, to reflect the expectation that all pupils should study these core subjects.
In 2017, GCSE English and maths were reformed, with a new grading scale from 9 (the highest grade) to 1 (the lowest grade) which replaced the old A* to G grading scale. To account for changes in the grading structure for pupils sitting GCSEs prior to 2017, we adjust average GCSE scores in the earlier years by mapping across the old score boundaries to the new, to produce a new adjusted point score for these pupils. Whilst the shift from unreformed to reformed GCSEs makes (absolute) comparisons of attainment difficult over time, our focus is on attainment gaps between specific groups of pupils.
In 2023, the average GCSE grade across English and maths was 4.6. As intended, this is the same as the average grade in 2019, as 2023 saw a return to pre-pandemic grading (with some protections). In 2022, GCSE outcomes broadly reflected the mid-point between 2019 and 2021, with exams having been cancelled during the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021 and replaced with centre assessed grades (CAGs) and teacher assessed grades (TAGs) respectively.
Pre-16 attainment gaps
For education phases up to age 16, we calculate attainment gaps using a ‘months of learning’ measure based on the following steps:
- We rank all pupils by their attainment score, as per the measures described above.
- We identify the relevant group of interest (e.g. disadvantaged pupils) and calculate the mean attainment rank of pupils in this group.
- We subtract the mean rank of the group of interest from that of the reference group (e.g. non-disadvantaged pupils).
- We convert this mean rank difference to a months of learning measure, by applying a scalar of 43 for the Early Years Foundation Stage, 64 for key stage 2, and 99 for key stage 4.
16-19 Education
At the end of 16-19 study, we measure attainment as a total point score over students’ best three qualifications (based on size rather than number of qualifications). The 16-19 disadvantage gap is then calculated as the mean average of the total point score for disadvantaged students, subtracted from the mean for non-disadvantaged students, expressed in equivalent A level grades.
For our total point score measure, we map all level 1-3 qualifications onto the same scale. Full details of our approach can be found in the 16-19 methodology chapter of our 2023 Annual Report and Annex C of our initial ‘measuring the 16-19 disadvantage gap’ report[3].
When looking at gaps within specific qualification types such as A levels, we use an average point score per qualification measure, and only students that have entered one or more relevant level 3 qualification are included.
In 2021 the Department for Education made changes to which students were included in that year’s results. The impact of this is that data from 2020 and 2021 are not directly comparable to 2023 or earlier years. We have therefore not reported on 2020 and 2021 16-19 data in this report. Further detail about the impact of this change can be found in the 16-19 methodology chapter of our Annual Report in 2023.
[1] The Department for Education is responsible for the collation and management of the NPD and is the Data Controller of NPD data. Any inferences or conclusions derived from the NPD in this publication are the responsibility of the Education Policy Institute and not the Department for Education.
[2] These ‘good level of development’ goals relate to the five areas of learning covering: communication and language; personal, social and emotional development; physical development; literacy; and mathematics.
[3] Tuckett, Bunting, Robinson, ‘Measuring the Disadvantage Gap in 16-19 Education’.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY geographic disadvantage gaps